Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.672985 3.660599 5.066496 7.285825 1.084354e+01 1.659821e+01 27.248723
2025-02-16 1.783431 2.819244 4.606799 8.177983 1.589810e+01 3.415266e+01 91.114185
2025-02-23 1.185147 2.080231 3.868051 8.202525 2.049732e+01 6.365384e+01 327.771804
2025-03-02 0.802062 1.524733 3.144214 7.763789 2.458814e+01 1.143588e+02 1531.786565
2025-03-09 0.619523 1.277995 2.944252 8.650290 3.697247e+01 3.179109e+02 48206.595891
2025-03-16 0.484829 1.071874 2.723786 9.429989 5.534254e+01 1.091041e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.395371 0.932921 2.609188 10.716493 9.130793e+01 7.097816e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.325372 0.812184 2.475123 11.961796 1.528107e+02 1.580620e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.256754 0.664142 2.140282 11.560880 2.016960e+02 3.928951e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.202728 0.538128 1.807362 10.630990 2.409239e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.173181 0.477635 1.707533 11.481152 4.117134e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.154596 0.445581 1.714825 13.617201 9.606164e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.139023 0.420089 1.753937 16.934355 3.290144e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.121116 0.378280 1.674505 18.758411 1.012870e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102375 0.325701 1.490453 18.228407 2.123263e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.085853 0.276104 1.288518 16.617208 3.365625e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.076878 0.254092 1.246996 18.505972 2.812846e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068830 0.232893 1.194301 20.144124 1.158639e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062800 0.218158 1.176280 23.114670 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057289 0.203660 1.148333 26.025663 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050499 0.180941 1.036077 24.702252 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044221 0.158838 0.913944 22.144789 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040678 0.148659 0.885169 24.087839 NaN NaN NaN